Showing posts with label demand clarity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label demand clarity. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Economics For 5th Graders

This entry is primarily written for the students of Classtopia.

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Your teacher asked me to share with you some of my thoughts about economics, which you’re currently covering in school.  She knows that it’s my very favorite thing in the world.  Why do I love economics even more than I love epiphytes?  Well, it’s because epiphytes, and everything else that I love, all depend on economics.

Right now there are several Tillandsia aeranthos blooming at your school.  The reason why these epiphytes are beautifying your school is because you’ve cared for them, and also because I decided to share them with your teacher.  Where did mine come from?  They came from my tree where they had grown from wind-dispersed seeds, which came from plants that I had received from a friend.  Around a decade ago I drove up to Oregon and picked up a big collection of Tillandsias from my friend Dale.  He had a giant greenhouse primarily dedicated to orchids, but thanks to the really excellent air movement, the Tillandsias were taking over.  They were growing on the walls, floors, benches, pots… they were even growing on the orchids.  So I helped “weed” the Tillandsias and he let me have them.  I piled them in the back of my truck and drove them back home.  The Tillandsias, especially aeranthos, were happy in their new home and over the years I’ve shared, sold and traded the extras.

Where did Dale get his Tillandsia aeranthos from?  I don’t know.  Maybe he received them from a friend, or maybe he bought them, or maybe he traded for them.  But I do know that Tillandsia aeranthos originally came from Brazil.  This is where it is native to. 

How Tillandsia aeranthos traveled from the trees in Brazil to the trees at your school in California is an economic story.  It involves many people over the years deciding that it was worth it to spend their time growing this epiphyte.  Each new grower helped Tillandsia aeranthos, as a species, hedge its bets.  This economic story doesn’t end at your school.  Several of you already took some home… and perhaps a few of you have already shared some with other people.

What about your new school?  I’m guessing that it doesn’t already have any Tillandsia aeranthos... is this a problem?  You’ll have to decide whether it’s worth it to try and grow this epiphyte at your new school.  This decision depends on weighing the costs and the benefits.  On the one hand, you’ll have to take the time to water them, but on the other hand, they’ll help beautify the school and make it more interesting.  Plus, they’ll provide food for hummingbirds and shelter for other animals, which would make your school even more interesting. 

There are a few different types of cost… the most important type is known as opportunity cost.  All the time that you spend watering Tillandsia aeranthos is time that you can’t spend doing other things.  Because your time is limited, naturally you want to put it to its most beneficial uses.  The idea that society’s limited resources should be put to their most beneficial uses is known as Quiggin’s Implied Rule of Economics (QIRE).

Let’s say that you determine how much benefit that you’d personally gain from having Tillandsia aeranthos growing on trees at your new school.  What about all the other students and teachers?   According to QIRE, it matters how much benefit they would gain from this, but it’s not like you can read their minds.

Therefore, when it comes to economics, one of the most important things is the communication of benefit.  In order to maximize beneficial behavior, we need to inform others how much benefit we derive from their behavior.  There are two ways that we can express benefit… words and actions.  The main difference is that actions require a sacrifice, words do not.  Naturally we like to use words to communicate benefit but, because they don’t involve any sacrifice, they aren’t very reliable.

I’ll share an economics joke with you.  Two economists are walking along when they happen to end up in front of a Tesla showroom.  One economist points at a shiny new car and says, “I really want that!”  The other replies, “You’re lying”.  This joke is funny because if the one economist had truly wanted the car then he would have walked in and bought it.  Evidently, given that he didn’t do so, the (opportunity) cost was too high for him.  He had more beneficial uses of his limited money.

Here’s one of the most useful passages on the subject…

If a woman told us that she loved flowers, and we saw that she forgot to water them, we would not believe in her "love" for flowers.  Love is the active concern for the life and the growth of that which we love.  Where this active concern is lacking, there is no love. - Erich Fromm, The Art of Loving

It’s easy to say that we love something, or someone, but love can only be reliably quantified and expressed by sacrifice.  The more time that you're willing to spend growing and promoting Tillandsia aeranthos, the greater your love for it.

As an extra credit assignment you can visit Rainforest Flora.  They offer a wide selection of Tillandsias, so you might be as happy as a kid in a candy store.  Walk around the sales area and make a list of all the Tillandsias that match your preferences, and then compare it to the list of all the Tillandsias that you actually buy.  How different are the two lists?  The owners of the nursery might be interested to know all the Tillandsias that you like, but what they are truly interested to know is which Tillandsias you actually love.  The Tillandsias that you genuinely love are the ones that you are willing to spend your money on.  The owners would take this more reliable feedback and use it to try and improve their selection of Tillandsias.  If, for example, you and other customers buy more Tillandsia aeranthos hybrids, then the owners would spend more of their time creating more of them, and this would make the customers happier.  Everybody who visits Rainforest Flora has the freedom to use their money to help grade all the different products.  This is what makes it a market.

What would happen if you asked the owners to simply give you some Tillandsias for free?  Perhaps they might be willing to give you one or two, especially if you buy a dozen.  However, they’ll be much more inclined to give you free Tillandsias if you explain that they will be used to beautify your new school.  It will certainly help if you show them a blog entry that has pictures of the Tillandsia aeranthos that are now blooming on trees at your current school.  You’d inform the owners that you would also use the blog to document your mission to beautify your new school with Tillandsias.

The Tillandsias that are growing on trees at your school are a public good.  But the ones at your home are a private good.  The difference is the amount of people that can enjoy them.  Of course if your Tillandsias at home are in the front yard where everybody can see them, then they would also be a public good.  The same exact good, in this case a Tillandsia, can be a private good or a public good depending on where it is grown. 

Just like the owners of Rainforest Flora are naturally going to be more inclined to give Tillandsias away if they know that they are going to be used to beautify a school, the same is also true of the members of the La Ballona Valley Bromeliad Society

Last Fall the owner of Sunset Valley Orchids, Fred Clarke, was kind enough to donate a big box of orchids to help beautify your current school.  Future blog entries that document his orchids growing and blooming on trees at the school should recognize and acknowledge his generous contribution. 

People are happy to voluntarily contribute to beneficial causes… but our society doesn’t solely rely on donations to pay for public goods.  We primarily rely on taxes.  People are forced to pay taxes because the amount of money that people would donate to public goods would be significantly less than their true perception of their benefit.  It's certainly a problem when spending doesn't reliably communicate benefit.  Yet, everybody's taxes are spent by elected representatives.

Strange as it might seem, there’s no scientific evidence that it’s beneficial to allow elected representatives to spend everybody’s taxes.  It would theoretically be far more beneficial for each and every taxpayer to have the freedom to choose where their taxes go.  Since people wouldn't have the option to spend their taxes on private goods, their spending decisions would reliably communicate the amount of benefit that they received from public goods. Those of us who love botanical gardens, for example, would be able to allocate our taxes to them.  Of course, every school should be a botanical garden!

Unlike Rainforest Flora, our government is not a market.  Neither is Netflix.  Each month each subscriber pays $10 dollars and Netflix decides how to divide this money among all its shows and movies.  What would happen if, all else being equal, each and every subscriber was given the freedom to decide for themselves how they divide their money among the content?  What difference would it make if 100 million subscribers, each one with a unique set of preferences and knowledge, could use their money to help grade the content?  Would the supply of nature shows worsen, improve or stay the same if Netflix was a market?

The reason why people can reasonably disagree about the effectiveness of markets is because there’s a severe scarcity of scientific evidence.  Therefore, reasonable people should strongly agree that it’s imperative to scientifically test different economic systems.  Every experiment is essentially a product, so a better understanding of economics would mean more scientific progress… as well as a better supply of shows, epiphytes and everything else.

Education itself is a bundle of different products.  In school I remember wondering about the usefulness of these products.  Recently an economist by the name of Bryan Caplan wrote a controversial book arguing that many of these products are useless...

Anyone who scrutinizes modern schools with a mildly cynical eye witnesses piles of material students are laughably unlikely to use in adulthood. The fat emerges in kindergarten: history, social studies, art, music, foreign language. By high school, as we've seen, students spend at least half their time on fat. In college, many majors are made of fat: think history, communications, or "interdisciplinary studies." About 40% of graduates earn degrees in comically - or tragicomically - useless subjects. Even the hardest majors burn ample time on high theory and breadth requirements. - Bryan Caplan, The Case against Education

The people who disagree with Caplan's book, which is itself an educational product, inherently agree that educational products aren't equally beneficial.  In order to ensure that students learn the most beneficial things, everybody should have the freedom to use their money to help grade educational products.  This logically makes economics the most beneficial thing to learn.  But it wouldn't be beneficial for everybody to actually become an economist.  With this in mind, I’ll leave you with the most beneficial passage from the most beneficial book…

It is thus that the private interests and passions of individuals naturally dispose them to turn their stocks towards the employments which in ordinary cases are most advantageous to the society. But if from this natural preference they should turn too much of it towards those employments, the fall of profit in them and the rise of it in all others immediately dispose them to alter this faulty distribution. Without any intervention of law, therefore, the private interests and passions of men naturally lead them to divide and distribute the stock of every society among all the different employments carried on in it as nearly as possible in the proportion which is most agreeable to the interest of the whole society.  —  Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations 

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Finding And Nurturing Things We Love

Reply to thread: Cloudforest plant board.Gone. Its back.

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The other day on Flickr I was trying to remember the username of one of the members that I follow. So I sorted all my contacts by the date that they last uploaded photos. I realized that it has been a really long time since most of my contacts have uploaded any photos.

For sure part of it is because of Instagram and Facebook and similar sites. But for me the main issue is figuring out my own responsibility in nurturing other people's beneficial behavior.

I have a garden and it's clearly my responsibility to nurture my plants. If they fail to grow and thrive it's probably because I dropped the ball. I failed to give a plant adequate drainage and/or light and/or food and/or protection from cold/heat/pests.

Tom, for example, isn't a plant in my garden! :) But I definitely derive enjoyment from his blog entries, forum posts and videos. So isn't it my responsibility to nurture him? Admittedly that does sound kinda funny!

But what are the alternatives?

A. It's not my responsibility to nurture Tom
B. Tom doesn't need to be nurtured
C. Tom is adequately nurtured

Tom doesn't need to be nurtured? This would seem to imply that he takes the time and makes the effort to share plant info entirely for his own benefit. That doesn't seem very likely. Clearly he can derive benefit from the act of sharing... but it's gotta be based somehow on the idea that others are going to benefit to some degree from his sharing.

Tom is adequately nurtured? Only Tom can know this! But what if he feels like he isn't being adequately nurtured? "Hey guys, I'm really not feeling enough love!" Is he going to say that?

Imagine if your plants could text you if they weren't feeling adequately nurtured! I think I'd be receiving a lot of texts right about now! Tomorrow I really need to water.

In no case are we mind-readers! As far as plants are concerned, all of us are good at interpreting the clues. If a plant looks wilty, we can reasonably guess that it doesn't have enough water. Obviously plants can't verbally communicate with us but they can certainly nonverbally communicate with us.

Despite the fact that we aren't mind-readers... most of us don't quite feel comfortable communicating that we aren't feeling adequately nurtured. Well... at least not in this context. If we aren't feeling adequately nurtured then we either suck it up... or spend our time doing other things. I think "suck it up" is a military expression? I'm drawing a blank for the non-military equivalent.

I don't quite perceive that it's Tom's responsibility to communicate that he isn't feeling adequately nurtured. I feel like it's my responsibility to communicate my enjoyment of what he's taken the time and made the effort to share. And sometimes I do so.... but I really don't do so all the time. Sometimes I don't have the time or energy to provide some decent positive feedback. Yet, I don't usually feel comfortable simply replying with "That's really great!" It just seems too inadequate. So I settle for nothing.

On Reddit (orchids group) you can vote people's posts up... or down. And for sure a vote up is better than nothing. Yet, if you really enjoyed a post, then a vote up is very inadequate.

On Flickr you can "vote" for a photo simply by clicking the star button. I've "voted" for a lot of photos! In some cases a "vote" was adequate. But in plenty of cases a "vote" was woefully inadequate.

Clearly you're not supposed to bite the hand that feeds you. This is a no-brainer. But there does seem to be a bit of confusion regarding rewarding the hand that feeds you. Of course everybody loves a free lunch! Yet...

It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. - Adam Smith

We expect plant people to give their valuable time and energy and expertise away for free... and clearly some people are willing to do so in various degrees. But the supply can only truly be optimal when it reflects the demand. So... what's the demand? I'm the only one who knows my demand for Tom's info. Stan doesn't know my demand for Tom's info and vice versa.

I'm pretty sure that it should be really easy to communicate our demand for each other's threads. For most people though this is an uncomfortable concept. We all have absolutely no problem spending our money on plants. Most of us have absolutely no problem spending our money on plant books. Yet, when it comes to spending our money on plant threads... there seems to be an issue.

Why spend your limited money on something that people are willing to give away? Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free? But if we feel like the supply of milk is inadequate... and we're not actually paying for milk... then... do we really need to call Sherlock Holmes? Sounds more like a case for Adam Smith!

The other day I joined a new forum. It's not a plant forum. When I joined I made a $10 dollar donation and became a VIP! I didn't do it for the VIP or because I wanted to support the forum. I simply wanted to use the $10 dollars to communicate my valuation of the threads. Well... I really didn't find many threads that were worth my money. So I created some! I created a thread for Adam Smith's book... The Wealth of Nations. And then I allocated half of my donation to my thread. It's a tricky concept because the money didn't go back into my pocket. I simply used it to communicate my valuation of Smith's book. Then I created a thread for Mill's book... On Liberty... and spent $3 dollars on it. These books are available online for free. It was the first time that I had spent any money on them.

And clearly I really wasn't trying to nurture Smith or Mill! Even though they can't see my demand for their books... other people can see my demand for their books. So I was trying to nurture the topic.

Today I was trying to explain this idea to a friend and I was doing a terrible job. A few hours later he e-mailed me a link and asked if that was what I was trying to describe. The link is to a page on the libertarian party (LP) website. To be clear, I'm not a libertarian and I'm definitely not trying to promote their agenda. But on that page, the LP explains that they are trying to...

1. Raise money
2. Choose a theme for their 2018 convention

They essentially combine these two things. People who are interested in a theme can spend as much money as they want on it. If you scroll down the page you can see how much money has been donated for the various themes. So it's essentially a survey, but voting has been replaced with donating. Participants essentially kill two birds with one stone. They donate money to the LP and use their donation to communicate their demand for a specific theme.

For politics it's often argued that buying influence subverts the will of the people. But if somebody donates money to a plant forum, does it subvert anybody's will if the donor uses their contribution to communicate their demand for specific threads?

From my perspective, it should be easier, rather than harder, to find and nurture things we love.

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Feedback On OrchidExchange.org

OrchidExchange.org is a new website for orchid growers in Southern California to sell their orchids.  The creator of the website promoted it on OrchidBoard and I decided to share some feedback...

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Really great website! Thanks for creating it! Here's some feedback...

Last weekend at the Santa Barbara Orchid Show I was happy to see that Peter had Lambara Five Aces (LFA) for sale.

LFA = Bardendrum Nanboh Pixy x Broughtonia sanguinea (and here)

It's a really exciting cross. A few months ago I bought some seedlings of this cross on eBay. The plants that Peter had for sale at the show were full grown and in full bloom. I was super tempted to buy one for myself but decided to buy one for my friend who drove us.

I was surprised that the LFAs weren't selling like hot cakes and I mentioned this to Peter. He said that people are idiots. Hah. No. That's not what he said. He said that most people don't know whether a cross is good or not. Or something along those lines.

It makes sense that most people aren't knowledgeable about crosses. And even people who are knowledgeable about crosses can't be knowledgeable about all crosses! There are just way too many crosses!

Ideally it would be really easy and quick for those who are knowledgeable about crosses to share their expertise with everybody else.

It's already kinda possible to do this. For example, just now I posted a link to Peter's LFA for sale on your website on the Epiphyte Society of Southern California's (ESSC) facebook page. I essentially vouched for the cross. Well... I vouched for the cross's potential.

Your website allows people to review and rate the orchids for sale... which is great. But I'd like the opportunity to offer more substantial feedback on an orchid. And by "substantial" I mean monetary.

Rather than simply giving LFA 5 stars... I'd like to be able to give it 5 cents!

Above the review/rating section there would be a valuation section. In this section you'd display my username along with my valuation...

Epiphyte: $0.05

I would essentially be giving Peter 5 cents for helping to make this really great cross available. Plus, I would be publicly vouching for LFA.

Let's say that Don also valuated this listing...

Cieneguitan: $0.20

The total valuation for this listing would be 25 cents.

Users would have the option to sort listings by their valuations. And you'd probably want to put the top 5 or 10 most valuable listings on your homepage. Users would essentially have the opportunity to use their pennies to help decide which listings were most worthy of being displayed on the homepage.

Also, it would be really awesome if I could click on Don's username and see all his valuations. I could sort them by date to see his most recent valuations and I could also sort them by value to see which listings he most values.

Right now I have the option to pick Don's brain. I can e-mail him and say, "Hey Don! Peter's selling 201 orchids on OrchidExchange. Which ones do you most highly recommend?" It's really wonderful to have easy access to Don's extensive outdoor growing orchid expertise. But it would be even better if everybody could know which of Peter's orchids that Don values the most.

With this system in mind... you would still want people to have the option to see and valuate sold listings. If Peter lists a Laelia speciosa cross and somebody buys it before I do... I'd still want to valuate the listing. I'd still want to give Peter some money for listing such a great cross. The more money this listing receives... the greater the incentive that Peter and other vendors would have to offer more Laelia speciosa crosses for sale.

It wouldn't be technically difficult to facilitate valuations. Members would use paypal to buy digital dollars. I'd give you $5 dollars and you would put $5 digital dollars into my "digital wallet". The digital wallet would simply be a column in the users table.

You would also need a many-to-many table. I'm guessing that you already have one for ratings? You would just need to create another one for valuations.

In the listings table you might want a column to keep track of the total valuations. That might make it faster to sort listings by their valuations.

While I'd certainly be happy to spend some money to promote/sponsor/support/encourage some really nice listings... I'm not sure how many other people would appreciate the opportunity to do so. One possible incentive would be to allow valuators to include a link to their personal website...

Epiphyte (website): $0.05

For my website I might choose the facebook page for the OSSC... or the ESSC... or my flickr page... or my blog.

So my valuation would have three functions...

1. Reward Peter
2. Promote LFA
3. Advertise my website

If you did display the top 5 or 10 most valuable listings on your homepage then this could potentially drive some decent traffic to the websites of the top valuators of those listings.

In this case the motivation to valuate the listings wouldn't be purely altruistic.

Anyways, it's just an idea! But I'm pretty sure that crowd sponsored results are the future.

Web 2.0 made it stupid easy to share information. Voila! Here I am! Here we are! As a result... the internet has lots of information. Web 3.0 will make it stupid easy to share our valuations of the shared information. As a result...it will be stupid easy to find the most valuable information.